A major part of product marketing and business development is searching key markets to see where trends are heading.  This could be on the field of play,  looking for functional ways in which to expand one’s product range, to see if athletes are doing anything differently from what you may have previously thought, or to even reinforce what you knew.

Or this could be to check what is on the edge of trend; what is up and coming, small brands that can react quickly to what’s happening, or to see if there’s a pattern among the haut couture brands that will trickle down into mass fashion by the time the next reason you can affect will hit the marketing.

No matter which of these you’re looking for, it’s simply referred to as ‘Trending.’

In Asia, with Tokyo being the market that was most fashion forward, it was my duty to go to Tokyo every month or so and hit Harajuku, Aoyama, Shinjuku and Shibuya. It was hard time.

Aside from the obvious here (that Tokyo is trendy, and who doesn’t know that?), there was a reason for selecting Tokyo over other markets. But occasionally, the other markets had the edge.

Key Market: China. Yes, to trend for China, we hit Tokyo. Yes, we also hit Shanghai, Beijing and Wuhan, but they still get trends late, despite the proximity to factories.

Key Demographic: men, ages 12-25. With an increased attachment to the internet, Japan was the Big Brother. They are Wile E. Coyote suuuuuuper cool.  The example i always use, for Americans to understand, is that when i was growing up, everything European was cool. Gucci Bags, Italian suits, even Duran Duran! (Now, take away the violent Japanese Imperialism and the atrocities committed in Nanjing, and we’re all good.)

Key Markets, runners up:
Seoul: about eight years ago, there was a Korean tv drama (think ‘Grey’s Anatomy,’ but with the audience the size of American Idol) that swept the region. Seriously. It was well-documented how restaurant traffic was down, kids in Hong Kong wanted to learn Korean, tourism was up — you’d be amazed.  So, Seoul was on the list to hit. It needed to be taken into consideration. The difference here,  though, was that the demographic of the show was more targeted to girls of the same age group, not guys. BUT, with teenage hormones going nuts at that age, teenage girls are highly influential over teenage boys.

Hong Kong:  it had a little bit of everything.  They had parallel imports from the US, the UK, Korea, Japan, Taiwan. Plus, it was in our own back yard, so was easy to hit when time and travel budgets were tight.  It was the smorgasbord of fashion…but it was no Michelin star, like Tokyo.

So, thanks to airlines and their Price Wars of spring, i had the chance to hit Paris a few weeks ago. I hadn’t been for a while, so it was time to go back. It was just vacation, but i swung into work mode almost immediately.

Now, Paris is different than Tokyo. By a long shot. But i kept wondering
- what colors am i seeing that are new (answer, 80’s pastels, but nothing i hadn’t seen for 8 months already)

- am i seeing any other outside influences? Asian, African, Russian?  Military? Answer:  no. I did notice just a litle more camouflage than i had in recent years, but i wasn’t sure what to think about that — had it never gone away?  Maybe it’s in response to the troop increase in Afghanistan. You laugh, but think about it:  after the second gulf war started, Zhang Zhi Yi showed up on Hong Kong Elle’s cover in a camo tank, and the trend began. It was directly related to military movement.

- am i seeing any technology (this is a very sports footwear specific question)? It is said that the cycle is that tech arcs during the Olympics, but fashion is key during the World Cup.  What i saw didn’t exactly buck that cycle, but seemed to ignore it. I saw Air Maxes and Shox footwear as much as i had 5 years ago. I saw Prestos back, but that was a worldwide launch, not a Europe/France specific SMU. So, answer: yes.

- any hot brands?  Answer: nothing out of the ordinary. No startups, no known brands, but with an upswing.

- which markets would this affect?  Others in Europe?  Hard to say. Germany and England have their own tastes. And french are truly unique…. Asia?  They’re still mostly bedazzled with the high end brands: LV, etc. So, nothing new there.  The US?  Doubtful — still in an economic tailspin. Nothing will change there.

The next step:  did it inspire me with any new product ideas or inspirations?  Yes, of course.  It wasn’t Tokyo, but it was still Paris.

[This is part one of a series where I will delve into different consumer segments and companies to attempt to understand what they are attempting to accomplish, what they have done right and, in my humble opinion, where they could potentially improve.]

Dragon Boating

One hobby I picked up from living in Hong Kong was dragon boating.  What’s that?  Well, you get about 22 guys together to practice once a week for two hours in 110% humidity and the mucky hell of the South China Sea, sometimes just feet from barges who I swear were trying to play pinball with our boats.

And then you go drink.  Lots.

Explain that!  Going to exercise to get in shape to pull a 10 ton wooden boat 250 meters through the water and then negate the entire session by ingesting fourteen pints of beer.  What?  But I got into it.  The thrill of racing is unparalleled (I even have an entire theory on the effect of dragon boating on each participant.  Pouring your guts out for 500 meters — standard US distances — will take you out of your comfort zone every time, whether or not you’re in the first round and you clean everyone’s clocks or if you’re in a Final and you lose by a bench.  As we get onto the dock for each race, game-faced and ready for action, we pass those who have just raced, and their lives have been changed forever.  The experience they have just had has forced them to dig deeper into themselves than most people ever have the chance to face, and as a result, they have learned more about themselves:  what they can accomplish, what they are capable of, or even what their shortcomings are and what they need to do to overcome them.)

In Hong Kong, it was to race Stanley, the big, annual race, which fielded over 200 teams from all over the world.  It was generally lads, expats and anyone who wanted a laugh.  It was a national event too.  Aside from the festival itself being rooted in Chinese folklore about a missing maiden at sea and the forlorn attempts to find her, for one day in June, the Stanley race course is lined with yahts loaded to the gills with beer.

When I moved back to the US, though, the sport is different:  there are very few ‘lads’ and expats in Portland and Canada.  And most likely, those who are more physically gifted will play basketball, soccer, baseball, football, and the like.  The crowd who dragon boats in the US is quite mixed:  60% over 30 yrs of age, 70% are women, very loyal to their sport, in it for a long period of time, sometimes for decades – name any other sport (besides running) that won’t beat your body down so much were you can continue to play for thirty years, then email me.  Ping Pong doesn’t count.  Levels of disposable income are relatively high, as it would seem that team apparel or traveling to race sites seems to be commonplace.  There is also a strict training regimen:  practices aren’t just from March to June, like in Hong Kong, but all year round.  I could sound like I’m wearing a skirt as I write this and complain that the teams in Portland still go out when it’s around 35° outside, if it weren’t for the fact that dragon boating is even more popular in Canada, and I don’t even want to think about how cold it is when they go out.

Ok, but all of this is just background.  To tie this together to the topic at hand is that involving ones’ self in a sport or culture is the best way to learn and understand the consumer.  Some of you may never heard of dragon boating before (just like many of you have probably never heard of women’s full contact lingerie football, but I swear, it exists) and therefore think that the consumer base is very small.  So, some more more numbers:  The Wasabi Paddling Club of Portland, Oregon, the largest, but certainly not the only club on the West Coast, boasts over 500 members.  While many aren’t as large as Wasabi, there are hundreds of others with at least 200 members.  There are races each weekend, nationwide from March to October.

There are companies that can sustain themselves on this type of niche consumer base.  Typhoon 8, based out Hong Kong, was founded by Lister Woo during the SARS recession of 2003 after he got tired of me fumbling passes for easy layups on the basketball court.  I knew Typhoon 8 grew in Hong Kong from word of mouth and a tight paddling community, but it blew my mind when I came to paddle with Wasabi and found members wearing his patented padded shorts.  “Pretty awesome, List,” I thought.

Kialoa Paddles in Bend, Oregon, has only about two dozen employees, and they have almost cornered the market on outrigger paddles, and they make some amazingly lightweight hybrid dragon boat paddles too.

These are two examples of companies driven by people deeply involved in the community who understands their consumer base thoroughly and have created product that improves the paddling experience for them.

But what are they missing?  How could they expand their businesses?  Specialized footwear is one.  Many use Keen Newports, as they have a rounded rubber toe, which is very important, as pushing off with legs is extremely important in maximizing power on the boat, but the Newport was built to be a flexible sandal and non-supportive hiker.  Many use water socks or flip flops.  A way to specialize footwear would to continue to incorporate a solid rubber toe cap, but with a flat edge to prevent slippage.  Other ways could be to work with Clubs for team-specific product.  Or even with other non-competitive brands.  Imagine purchasing a Keen Newport with a Typhoon 8 or Wasabi Paddling Club logo on the heel.  Granted, most minimums on footwear orders are around 5,000 units, but customization can occur, and with the economy the way it is, companies are in dire need of expanding their consumer base.

There are other products, and each have their own challenges from a production or pricing point of view, but the challenge is to understand your consumer, your sport and know that even in a bad economy, people still need to do their sports.

With unemployment still hovering around 9.7% and still seemingly running on go cart battery (“Archer” anyone?), I need to keep reminding myself that there are more than 15 million other Americans like me:  looking for work.  Jobs in the US are simply not appearing (not for marketing people at least – designers and developers seem to have their pick).  But my job base is not just the United States, but global.  Granted, I spent over twelve years overseas in Europe and Asia because I found it interesting, but you can do it too.

What I did

Essentially, I got bored.  Yes, I had studied languages from German to Japanese to French and had studied international politics and economics in school, but there was more to it that drove me overseas.  And I think it was boredom.

When I was 16, almost like Luke Skywalker, I up and announced to my parents that I was going to Germany.  I stayed with friends, I learned German, and I came back to the US.  When I was 23, I went back.  When I was 25, after working at Nike for a time and not advancing like I wanted, I up and left for Japan to teach English.  (Each time, by the way, my mom had what seemed to be a mild stroke.)  After a while, I came back to the US and then (surprise!) up and announced that I was moving to Hong Kong.  By this time, my mom expected these announcements and basically escorted me onto the plane.  Okay, not really, but she was used to my apparent thirst for adventure and me throwing myself into the deep end (which I still do to this day, with varying levels of success).   This time, it took, and I stayed.  For twelve years.

Personally, I gained friends that I will literally have a lifetime.  I began to play basketball.  A lot.  I started running, including half marathons (that first one you finish has got to be better than any drug, I’d stake my life on it).   I traveled quite a bit, both for work and for pleasure.  One should always be careful what he wishes for, though, because as great as those airline mile statements may look, a sixty percent travel schedule keeps you from building friendships at home and from seeing your loved ones.

Professionally, working in Asia was a rush.  To be part of growing the fastest part of the world was extremely satisfying.  You were able to make a decision and see it implemented on the streets just days later.  Politics tended to be set aside purely to chase the goal we all had.  We all learned how to plan, strategize, to create, to implement.   I come back to the US now, and I see some people older than us with fewer professional skills, and it reminds me of what a CEO of one sports marketing company said to me once:  “living in Asia is like getting your MBA.”  I think he was almost right.

Not to put too fine a point on it, the feeling I had before I left for Hong Kong was that Americans seemed to be going through their lives with blinders on – not the ones you get in first class to sleep during a trans-Atlantic flight, but the ones that horses wear during parades so you only see what’s in front of you, but not to the sides, to eliminate one’s ability to see the big picture.  Well, the big picture was out there (you know, THERE), and I had to see it.

The experiences I had, the people I met, the places I went, and the successful career I had until Wall Street bankers decided to play Russian Roulette with the global economy, I wouldn’t trade for anything.

How you can do it

The economy is not the same one it was in 1997.  Back then, I was looking for a job for four weeks.  That’s it.   However, I did survive the minor recession of 1999 (I remember that Nike laid off 200 members of their regional office and it literally sent shockwaves through the industry.  First, word trickled in through friends and then spread like wildfire.  Office who had yet to even consider layoffs were dark and quiet simply because of Nike had done and what could happen) and SARS of 2003, but not the Global Recession of 2008/09.

But things are picking up again.  What to do?  First, learn a language.  Subscribe to podcasts (free!).  Take a look at companies with regional or international offices.  I know plenty of people who lived overseas with no language ability, but they were good at what they did.  Call, write, explore.  Expand your base.  Another friend of mine from Hong Kong, whose brother lives in Toronto, says that Americans are applying for Canadian jobs left and right because there are no jobs in the US.  True story!

But also understand this:  the US is a world leader in terms of strategic thinking and implementation, which is why we are hired and sent overseas.   In this regard, we do have an advantage.  So give it a try.  Living outside of the US isn’t as bad as some people might think.

Throughout the small economic blips of the last 10-12 years (the mini recession in ‘99, SARS in 2003), it has been generally accepted that the sporting goods industry has been recession proof.  And the logic is easy:  no matter what disposal income one has, they still need to continue to do their sports, running, basketball, etc.  It’s important for mental as well as physical health, particularly during stressful economic times.

It would seem that the current Great Recession has certainly bucked that trend.  Nike’s Q210 results show the sportswear giant down 4% from last year, and adidas group earnings are down 7% from its previous year.   Granted, these drops are not as large as many other companies, but with financial targets usually exceeding 10%, such a drop is very damaging.  The sports brands are progressively becoming healthier, though, with Nike reducing their inventory by 10% and adidas reducing by 8%, putting them in a healthy position to introduce new and interesting product through 2010 and 2011.

The US, though, is still having difficulty recovering, as the 14.8 million unemployed can attest to, but other key markets around the world, while not out of the recession, seem to be getting out quicker.  Asia has a particular amount of potential, with two of the world’s leading economies, China and Japan.  China’s expected GDP for 2010 is up 46% from 2009 to 9.5%  Japan is planning to be back in the black this year with a 1.1% GDP, after being down last year by more than 15%.

The question is:  when will consumer trends get back up to pace, or, even more importantly, simply improve a little bit?  The answer may be:  in the US? Not for a while.  But Asia, after only a small blip, is still cruising.

The fact is that brands in the US export products that Asia desires:  basketball is China’s number one participation and spectator sport (except when the World Cup is on), running is positively enormous, as you can see from participation numbers for the 2009 Singapore (over 50,000), Hong Kong (over 24,000), Tokyo and Beijing (over 30,000) marathons, and snowboarding in Korea and Japan is unsurpassed – and they draw tourists from all over Asia.

As Americans, it’s time to open up our eyes a little bit, understand the needs of consumers overseas.  In the short term, it will kick start our economy.  In the long term…we might learn something.

Last week, while waiting for a Portland State University men’s basketball game to start, I surveyed the court, very interested in which Player Edition footwear Nike had bestowed upon my alma mater’s team.  From a sports marketing point of view, a company says a lot about themselves and the players and teams they sponsor by the shoes supplied.  In this case, it was a bit of a mish-mash:  2009 models, 2008 models, team shoes, customized iconic shoes, shoes with different technologies and heights.  I tried to figure out who the superstars on the team were by what they were wearing (I couldn’t).

My friend, Terry, and I started discussing global marketing strategy, specifically U.S. companies operating in other countries, until we landed on Li Ning, the industry-anointed “Nike of China.”

Li Ning was a gymnast who won six medals (three gold) in the 1984 Summer Olympic Games, then went on to start his namesake footwear and apparel company in 1990.  They are the largest competitor to the foreign brands (Nike, adidas, Reebok, New Balance, although in their internal market share computations, they call it the “Luxery Sports Market”, effectively eliminating the local brands, such as Li Ning).  Li Ning dominates the poorer Tier 3-6 cities in China, their quality is notably poorer than the foreign brands, and they operate on essentially a copycat marketing strategy, in terms of design, corporate logo (it looks a lot like a swoosh) but also in terms of office placement.

Looking for brain drain from Nike and adidas, Li Ning has had a design office here in Portland, Oregon for about two years (officially, they opened the office in January 2008, but they have been hiring designers away from adidas and have had teams from Beijing visiting the city for over two years now).

Last week, Li Ning opened their flagship retail store next door to their Portland office, a Badminton Store – their first in the U.S., their third globally (after Hong Kong and Singapore).  I dropped by yesterday just for a look, and two things struck me:  First:  the Pearl District is a trendy area of converted warehouses to upscale lofts and apartments, scattered with bars, restaurants, as well as high-priced law and real estate offices, and not much of a shopping destination.  Is this really the right place for a badminton store?  Second:  I have been to many of Li Ning’s retail doors in Shanghai, Beijing, Wuhan and Guangzhou, and the quality of the product in the store seemed to be much improved. Maybe there is some hope for them yet to break out of that “cheap brand” image.  Not if they don’t fix a few of their major problems first.

First of all, I get that it’s cheaper to operate a purely experimental retail store right out of the U.S. office – it’s cheaper.  And I also get that it’s very important to hold true to brand positioning and open a Badminton Store (they sponsor numerous International Badminton teams).  But did they not do their research?  I bet I could count on one hand the number of badminton players who live in the Pearl.  Within 10 blocks are two major gyms, a 24 Hour Fitness and an L.A. Fitness – neither has badminton courts, but both have basketball courts.  They also sponsor national basketball teams Argentina (’04 Olympic Gold Medal winners) and Spain (’06 World Champions).  The front page of Li Ning’s English website highlights their NBA sponsored athletes, Baron Davis, Shaquille O’Neal and Jose Calderon.  Their message seems to be somewhat disjointed.  It seems that as a company, Li Ning has invested quite a bit to be associated with basketball (the most popular sport in China).  They couldn’t leverage this as they entered the U.S. market?  Is Badminton going to be the hot sport of 2010?  I don’t quite think so…..

Aside from this, the layout looks like a sporting goods store – not cool, not trendy, not a destination.

So, how should Li Ning enter the U.S. market?  The consumers in China and the U.S. are very, very different.  The perception of Chinese goods do not have the same stature as, say, Italian brands would have in the eyes of Americans.  And there is such a high number of competitors facing Li Ning in the US on the price-sensitive level, such as Vans, Puma, LA Gear, private label brands, that whatever they do will require long (long, long) term planning.

I know from talking with company employees from Beijing that Li Ning doesn’t actually believe they can walk into the U.S. and make a serious dent.  It would seem, though, that someone didn’t tell that to those who opened the Portland Badminton store.  It looks like Li Ning’s first public step in entering the U.S. market may prove to be their last.

Basketball is arguably my first love.  I love playing ball, watching ball, and now, I’m coaching ball – the 5^th Grade Lions of Laurelhurst Elementary School.

I only played basketball recreationally, so I never received proper coaching.  But once I started playing in organized leagues in Hong Kong, I started reading, watching and practicing in an attempt to improve.  My play was initially ugly and unrefined.  Over time, though, I did improve.  I got to learn my spots on the floor and where I belonged.  I also developed a solid free throw line jumper and how to be a strong defender.   My teams won a few championships, and I averaged 20/10 on some teams.

I believe that a person shows their true colors on the basketball court.  Are they leaders?  Supporting cast?  Complainers?  Blue collar workers?  Dirty players?  Watch someone play ball, and you will know the kind of person they are after only a few minutes.

However, this rule doesn’t apply to ten year olds….or does it?  Our first game was Saturday, and we lost.  Bad.  38-6 bad.  There were a variety of reactions.  Some cried, some giggled among themselves, some didn’t seem to notice.  Others, on the other hand, furrowed their brows, trying to analyze why the other team was superior.   One particularly gifted kid started talking strategy at half time.  Amazing.

So maybe the “true colors” hypothesis does apply to all levels of the game.  But this can apply to something else:  that this basketball team of young players can also be reflective of any group in any organization.  There are those who are knowledgeable, those who are driven, those who are there for the paycheck and those who are there, but should not be.    And whenever we’re in an organization, we don’t always get to select who we work with/for or who works for us.  The trick there is to understand everyone’s level at any particular game, their motivation for being there, how to make them better, and how to get them to do what you want.

Working in Asia, it was extremely rewarding working across global, regional and local colleagues and counterparts to execute projects and strategize.  It’s essential to get the support of key stakeholders.  But it’s also a challenge to understand what makes those people tick.  And if one cannot attain their support, it can be a challenge to yourself to produce a better proposal or business plan, even if, in the process, it’s understood that there may be other priorities more important for the team.

So, am I smarter than a 5^th Grader?  Well, I’d like to think so.  But I’m still learning from them.  They are teaching me how to become a better coach and a better manager.  They are teaching me how to understand different people, personalities and egos.  I’m looking forward to seeing how they develop by the time the season ends in February, as they face both wins and losses.  More than anything, though, I want them to learn (and love?) the game that has given me so very, very much.

I feel like a foreigner here.  Don’t get me wrong, I was born and raised here, where I am currently sitting, in the cold Portland, Oregon November (well, it’s cold to me).  But I haven’t lived here in years.  Fourteen years, to be exact.  I’ve spent a bulk of that time living in Hong Kong, with some stints in Shanghai, China and Ueda, Japan.  And, working for one of the major sporting goods companies in the area, I would come back for work every few months.  So, I am aware of my surroundings, but at the same time, it’s all brand new.  Portland has changed.   The United States has changed.  For a while, I would come back and it would feel like the twilight zone:  your life continues, develops, progresses, but the place you left doesn’t.  It remains stagnant.  But that was an illusion.

Living in Asia was great, though.  Once there, we all felt like we were accomplishing something; the fastest growing economic region in the world.  We focused on results, and were not bogged down by politics, as I’ve heard so many companies in the U.S. are.  You could make a decision and see it executed on the street the next day.  It was very, very rewarding.

It also helped that I was working with a sport I loved – basketball.  Market research was sneaker shopping in Harajuku or joining a pickup game in Sathorn Playground.  But that’s the key, isn’t it?  Doing something you love, work isn’t hard.

But even since I left China almost 8 months ago, China has changed.  I hear it from my friends, I see it in the news.  The youth in China are growing up with a sort of pride that has never been seen before.   My opinion is that Chinese are in a struggle with each other.  This was a necessity, stemming through Mao’s China, the Cultural Revolution, but there are also issues with those from different regions (understandable, we Oregonians can’t stand Washingtonians – sorry Washingtonians!).

The insecurity can be seen every time China is criticized.   If the U.S. government is criticized, they would either ignore it, or say something to the effect of “they have the right to say what they want.”  The Chinese government, on the other hand, will demand an apology and that so-and-so be fired.  Somewhat like a petulant child.

It could also be seen during the Beijing Olympic Games.  It was so imperative that China be better than everyone else, to show how great they were (insinuating that they had this inferiority complex previously).  And granted, they did a fantastic job.  I was in Beijing during that time, and it was probably my most enjoyable trip.  However, I’m sure that Great Britain will approach their motivation for executing their version of the Olympic games in quite a different fashion.

However, during President Obama’s recent trip to Asia, I heard mentioned on NPR that during the town hall meeting, that the youth in attendance were not the shy, quiet students of generations past.  It seems that they are beginning to feel their entitlement, understanding their place on the current world stage, and their place in history.   It seems that China is finally coming of age.  I suppose, the question is, who is next?  North Korea?  India?  But that’s speculation for another time.

All right, enough of politics for now.  I’m used to the short, crisp prose of corporate email, but it certainly is a nice change.